Why don’t Boluo house prices rise? ——Analysis of current property market trends and regional factors
Recently, the national property market has shown a trend of differentiation, with housing prices in first-tier cities rising steadily, while some third- and fourth-tier cities are facing stagflation or even a correction. As a county-level area under the jurisdiction of Huizhou, why have house prices in Boluo County not risen yet? This article combines hot topics and structured data across the Internet in the past 10 days to conduct an in-depth analysis of the reasons.
1. Hot property market trends across the country (last 10 days)
| city/region | house price trends | Key Policies/Events |
|---|---|---|
| Beijing | +0.3% month-on-month | Optimize purchase restriction policy |
| Shenzhen | +0.5% month-on-month | Second-hand housing transaction volume rebounds |
| Huizhou Daya Bay | Month-on-month -0.2% | Inventory cycle exceeds 20 months |
| Boluo County | flat | The clearance rate for new homes is less than 60% |
2. Five major reasons for stagflation in housing prices in Boluo
1. Imbalance between supply and demand
As of the third quarter of 2023, the inventory of new homes in Boluo County has reached 12,000 units, which will take 18 months to digest at the current sales rate, which is significantly higher than the healthy range (6-12 months).
| indicator | numerical value | Contrast value |
|---|---|---|
| new home inventory | 12,000 sets | Huizhou’s average value is 8,000 units |
| elimination cycle | 18 months | Huizhou average 14 months |
2. Lagging transportation facilities
Compared with Huiyang District, which is connected to Shenzhen Metro Line 14, Boluo mainly relies on the Dongguan-Huizhou Intercity Intercity, and its commuting efficiency is low, which restricts Shenzhen's spillover demand.
3. Insufficient industrial support
Boluo's GDP growth rate in 2022 is 4.1%, which is lower than Huizhou's 4.8% and lacks the agglomeration effect of high-end industries.
| economic indicators | Boluo County | Huizhou City |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth rate | 4.1% | 4.8% |
| per capita disposable income | 32,000 yuan | 38,000 yuan |
4. Impact of policy regulation
Huizhou still implements a price limit policy, and the registered price of new residential buildings must not exceed 15,000 yuan/㎡, curbing the room for rising housing prices.
5. Investment demand cools
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the proportion of investment among Boluo home buyers has dropped from 35% in 2019 to 12% in 2023, indicating that the market driving force has weakened.
3. Forecast of future trends
In the short term, Boluo house prices will remain sideways, and we need to pay attention to two major variables:
• Shenzhen-Huizhou rail transit planning (such as Shenzhen subway extension line)
• Achievements in industrial introduction (implementation of electronic information, intelligent manufacturing and other projects)
Conclusion:The stagflation of housing prices in Boluo is the result of the joint action of regional development stage, market rules and policy environment. Home buyers should view it rationally and choose the right opportunity to enter the market for self-occupation needs, while investment needs to be carefully evaluated.
check the details
check the details
en
